IND 9.0% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Allegra Spender, since 2022.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Sydney. Wentworth covers Woollahra and Waverley local government areas, as well as eastern parts of the City of Sydney and northern parts of Randwick LGA. Wentworth covers the southern shore of Sydney Harbour as far west as Finger Wharf, and covers the east coast from South Head to Clovelly. Main suburbs include Bondi, Woollahra, Vaucluse, Clovelly, Darlinghurst, Double Bay, Kings Cross, Potts Point, Woolloomooloo and parts of Randwick. Wentworth also covers Moore Park and Centennial Park.
Redistribution
Wentworth expanded in the only two directions that was possible – to the west and south. Wentworth took in Darlinghurst, Potts Point and Woolloomooloo from Sydney, and the remainder of Clovelly and part of Randwick from Kingsford Smith. These changes brought in areas much more favourable to the left, and I estimate this increased Spender’s margin from 4.2% to 9.0%.
Wentworth is an original federation electorate and has always existed roughly in the eastern suburbs of Sydney. It has been held by conservative parties, including the Liberal Party since its foundation in 1944, except for a brief period in 2018-19 when it was won by an independent.
The seat was first won by William McMillan of the Free Trade party in 1901. He was elected deputy leader of his party but retired at the 1903 election. He was succeeded by William Kelly, also a Free Trader. Kelly joined the Commonwealth Liberal Party and served in Joseph Cook’s ministry from 1913 to 1914.
Kelly retired in 1919 as a Nationalist and was succeeded by Walter Marks. Marks joined with other Nationalists, including Billy Hughes, to bring down the Bruce government in 1929, and was reelected as an independent. Marks joined the new United Australia Party in 1931, but was defeated in that year’s election by Eric Harrison, another UAP candidate.
Harrison held the seat for twenty-five years for the UAP and the Liberal Party. He usually held the seat safely, although he only held on by 335 votes in 1943, when feminist campaigner Jessie Street (ALP) challenged Harrison. William Wentworth also polled 20%. He later joined the Liberal Party and was elected in Mackellar in 1949.
Harrison had served a number of brief stints as a minister under Joseph Lyons and Robert Menzies in the 1930s and early 1940s, and served as the first deputy leader of the Liberal Party from its foundation until his retirement in 1956. Harrison was a minister in the Menzies government from 1949 until 1956, when he retired.
Les Bury (LIB) won the seat at the 1956 by-election. He served as a minister from 1961 until 1971, serving as Treasurer under John Gorton and briefly as Treasurer and then Foreign Minister under William McMahon. Bury retired in 1974.
Robert Ellicott (LIB) was elected in 1974. He served as Attorney-General in the first Fraser Ministry and as Minister for Home Affairs from 1977 to 1981, when he resigned to serve on the Federal Court. The ensuing by-election was won by Peter Coleman. Coleman had previously served as Leader of the Opposition in the NSW Parliament, and lost his seat at the 1978 state election.
Coleman retired in 1987 and was succeeded by John Hewson. Hewson was elected leader of the Liberal Party following their 1990 election defeat. Hewson led the party into the 1993 election, where the party went backwards. He was replaced in May 1994 as leader by Alexander Downer, and he retired from Parliament in 1995.
Andrew Thomson won the following by-election. Thomson served briefly as a Parliamentary Secretary and junior minister in the first term of the Howard government. Thomson was defeated for preselection by Peter King in 2001.
King himself was defeated for preselection in a heated preselection campaign in 2004 by Malcolm Turnbull. The preselection saw a massive explosion in membership numbers for the Liberal Party in Wentworth. King ran as an independent and polled 18%, and Turnbull’s margin was cut to 5.5%.
The redistribution after the 2004 election saw Wentworth extended deeper into the City of Sydney, and Turnbull’s margin was cut to 2.5%. Turnbull managed to win the seat in 2007 with a 1.3% swing towards him, in the face of a national swing against the Liberals.
Turnbull had served as a minister in the final term of the Howard government, and ran for the Liberal leadership following the 2007 election, losing to Brendan Nelson. After serving as Nelson’s Shadow Treasurer he was elected Leader of the Opposition in September 2008. After a rocky term as Leader of the Opposition, Turnbull was defeated by Tony Abbott by one vote in another leadership vote in December 2009. Turnbull served as a shadow minister and then as Minister for Communications under Tony Abbott’s leadership.
In September 2015, Turnbull successfully challenged Abbott for the Liberal leadership, and became Prime Minister. He led the Liberal-National coalition to a second term in government in 2016.
Malcolm Turnbull led the Liberal Party in government until August 2018, when he resigned following a motion to spill the Liberal leadership. He was succeeded as Prime Minister by Scott Morrison. Turnbull resigned from Wentworth shortly after losing the leadership.
The 2018 Wentworth by-election was won by independent candidate Kerryn Phelps. Phelps held the seat until the 2019 election, when she was defeated by Liberal candidate Dave Sharma.
Sharma held the seat for just one term before losing to independent Allegra Spender in 2022. Sharma was then appointed as a senator for New South Wales.
Assessment
Wentworth has become much more favourable for Spender in the redistribution and she should win a second term.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dave Sharma | Liberal | 35,995 | 40.5 | -7.0 | 37.5 |
| Allegra Spender | Independent | 31,810 | 35.8 | +35.8 | 29.3 |
| Tim Murray | Labor | 9,654 | 10.9 | -0.1 | 17.7 |
| Dominic WY Kanak | Greens | 7,410 | 8.3 | +0.8 | 10.7 |
| Natalie Dumer | United Australia | 1,813 | 2.0 | +1.3 | 2.1 |
| Daniel Lewkovitz | Liberal Democrats | 1,346 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1.2 |
| Dean Fisher | One Nation | 895 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 1.2 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 2,277 | 2.5 | -0.5 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Allegra Spender | Independent | 48,186 | 54.2 | 59.0 | |
| Dave Sharma | Liberal | 40,737 | 45.8 | 41.0 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dave Sharma | Liberal | 49,727 | 55.9 | -3.9 | 51.2 |
| Tim Murray | Labor | 39,196 | 44.1 | +3.9 | 48.8 |
Booths have been divided into four parts along local government boundaries.
There was no Liberal vs Independent 2CP for the newly-added areas in Sydney and Randwick. I have instead used the Liberal 2CP against either independent or Labor, excluding the Labor vs Greens 2CP in the areas added from Sydney.
The Liberal vote is strongest in Woollahra, and weakest in Sydney. Spender would have likely done even better in the areas added from the seat of Sydney. She did about 11% better than Labor in Woollahra and Waverley, which would translate to a 2CP of about 80% in Sydney and 78% in Randwick.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP | LIB 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Woollahra | 63.2 | 51.9 | 15,829 | 14.6 |
| Waverley | 48.1 | 37.2 | 13,695 | 12.6 |
| Sydney | 33.6 | 31.4 | 8,279 | 7.6 |
| Randwick | 37.8 | 33.0 | 6,078 | 5.6 |
| Pre-poll | 50.6 | 39.5 | 45,499 | 41.9 |
| Other votes | 56.6 | 45.6 | 19,328 | 17.8 |
Election results in Wentworth at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Liberal or Labor vs Greens), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidate Allegra Spender, Labor and the Greens.
The Wentworth count is.
Curtin had a 0.81%TPP swing to Labor compared to a 0.54% swing to Labor statewide in WA.
It’s been declared. The 2PP is: ALP 50.56% LIB 49.44%.
Warringah’s 2PP at last count is ALP 55% LIB 45% with a near 6% swing to Labor.
So far who’s leading in the non-classic seats:
* Labor: Bean, Canberra, Clark, Cooper, Fowler, Franklin, Fraser, Fremantle, Grayndler, Griffith, Hunter, Melbourne, Ryan, Sydney, Warringah, Watson, Wentworth, Wills
* Liberal: Curtin, Farrer, Flinders, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, Wannon
* LNP: Maranoa
* National: Calare
* No count yet: Bradfield, Calwell, Cowper, Goldstein, Groom, Kennedy, Mayo, Newcastle
I just checked Wentworth, it looks pretty much done. A lot of the others aren’t though. Nevertheless while the TPP margins in some will change the winning party probably won’t.
For the ones with no count, Labor will win Calwell and Newcastle, the Liberals will win Bradfield and Goldstein, the LNP will win Groom and Kennedy, and the Nationals will win Cowper. Mayo could go either way, usually it’s Liberal but last time it was Labor so I’m leaning towards saying Labor have the edge there.
Just got reminded of Turnbull’s knifing this morning by a non-political event (Ange’s undeserved sacking as Spurs manager). Without reason, a leader was knifed.
But here’s an alternate history scenario: what if Turnbull didn’t get knifed? Would the Liberal Party be in a better place or would’ve Dutton still replaced him and messed it all up?
@ NP
I think the reason Turnbull got knifed was that he lost 3 critical seats (Lindsay, Herbert and Longman). He lost other seats like Cowan, Braddon etc but so did John Howard he retained Banks and Reid though. Also the SSM Victory for Yes hurt the right flank. If Turnbull had not been knifed then i am not sure the Teals will exist today. Turnbull may have won Macnamara in 2019 if Danby was still there and possibly won Griffith as well. I think the Adani issue would have meant that he would have won back Herbert and Lindsay did not have a sitting Labor member in 2019. Turnbull may have been able to hold onto Corangamite in 2019. I really think we need to go back further to 2009 what if the Greens voted for the CPRS. Would Tony Abbott ever have been PM and set off a chain of events that led to Dutton.
@Nimalan that’s exactly my question: would we even have teals? The state teals are completely irrelevant and not a single one has been elected at a state election for a similar reason. I don’t think Climate 200 will bother running in NSW in 2027 except in Pittwater, and if they do it’ll be a complete waste of money. As for federally I think whether Dutton became Opposition Leader or not is a key question. If Turnbull lost in 2022 like Scomo did would Dutton still have replaced Turnbull like he did with Morrison or would Frydenburg be leader assuming he retained Kooyong?
@ Nether Portal
I would say the Teals are a wedge in the Liberal party (yes it relies on tactical voting but if the Liberal vote held up) then the Teals would not exist. Recently, Tony Barry said they are bit like what the DLP was to Labor. The DLP was a wedge that arose out of the Labor party split but eventually that Wedge became irrelevant for example the Labor party accepted funding Catholic Schools, Nixon Visted China and the Vietnam war ended and it just faded away. Today’s DLP is just a shell and no threat to the Labor party whatsover. If the climate wars become less relevant for example too much progress has been made on reducing emissions, energy transition as you say they will become less relevant in NSW there is no climate wars so even if the Teals hold Pittwater they can easily support a Liberal minority government. Regarding Turnbull if he quit under different circumstances for example lets say he quit in 2018 due to ill health and gave Scomo or even Dutton a blessing to succeed him then those are different circumstances. While Dominic Perrotett was conservative he was not hated by moderates he did not undermine Gladys for example and that was a smooth transition with no policy change. If the challenge did not occur Dutton may not have gained the reputation of a wrecker
@Nether Portal Julie Bishop would still be around under that circumstance so she’d put her hand up for leader. So we’d just have a Dutton vs Bishop vs Morrison scenario just like in 2018. Frydenberg could also put his hand up and make it a 4 way contest. Turnbull most certainly would have lost 2022 as I feel it was a post-COVID repudiation of the Libs that would happen regardless of the leader. Only difference is the teal seats wouldn’t be lost and Ryan, Higgins and Boothby probably wouldn’t be lost too. Relations with China would also sour like in the Morrison era so seats like Chisholm, Reid, Bennelong and Tangney would likely still fall to Labor and hand Albanese the keys to the Lodge. The huge WA swing would probably still occur. On the flip side, Braddon, Bass and Longman might not have fallen to the Libs in 2019 but Turnbull could have also flipped seats like Macnamara and Corangamite so the net result would likely still be a narrow majority of about 1 to 2 seats.
It is still possible that Warringah could have been lost in 2019 even with Turnbull if voters there were sick of Tony Abbbott although if he retired in 2019 irrespective of whether it was Turnbull or Scomo i think it would have been safe retain.
@Nimalan I agree, Warringah was already Liberal vs Greens in 2016 too.
@Dan M I’d argue that even though relations with China would’ve still soured (to be fair our relationship with China has never really been one of allyship, and Pew Research polling shows that 85% of Australians have a negative view of China as a political entity), Turnbull may have been less aggressive than Morrison perhaps. As for Bennelong given the Liberals barely lost it in 2022 maybe that wouldn’t have fell, especially if John Alexander didn’t retire.
@Nimalan, even if Susan Ley found a way to end the climate wars within the Coalition hence end the issue itself, the Second Trump Presidency would likely still be a massive sore point for the Liberal Party as it could be used as a Wedge Issue given Next Australian Election will have to be before the Next US presidential election.
@NP and Dan M, I would say 50/50 if Turnbull would be tough on China as Scott Morrison given Morrison is more conservative in politics meaning he is more tolerant on cutting ties with China than Turnbull.
@Marh, I would argue though that if the climate wars ended then voters would no longer associate regular conservatism with ultra ultraconservatism/Trumpism. And given the Albanese government isn’t actually popular according to opinion polling (Albo only had a net positive approval rating in three of the 40 opinion polls in 2025 where the question was asked), Labor still has to work to improve that, so who knows what’ll happen?
@ Marh
i am thinking long term not 2028 by 2034 the Coal fired power stations are scheduled to close in Australia due to market forces.
Sussan Ley would at least have to end the climate wars to have a shot at winning middle suburbia where the Liberals hold very few seats. I think it was on the Curtin’s Cast podcast I heard Morrison turned off professional women whereas Dutton turned off women in general. I don’t expect Wentworth to be in danger anytime soon but a good start for the Liberals would be to reclaim low-margin seats in metropolitan areas.
@Nimalan, I think if Turnbull were the PM in 2019, Abbott still would’ve lost Warringah. Zali Steggall had a well-run, concerted campaign and had a strong, local profile. Abbott was already a backbencher and he didn’t appear personally popular in the electorate.
2pp is?
In Wentworth? Labor 50.56 Liberal 49.44
@Votante
I think if Sussan Ley tries to do a decent Climate Policy and end the climate wars, she would do ‘sweeteners ‘ to not upset the Right Faction of the party and the Nationals else The Coalition would break up again and/or the right of the Libs would challenge her akin to the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) debacle in 2009. Even if she managed to get the Coalition on board, I’d imagine (mainly under the influence of Gina Rinehart) that Sky After Dark, Institute of Public Affairs and Advance Australia running campaigns against Ley and encourage conservatives to abandon the Coalition for Right-Wing to Far-right parties (like One Nation.)
@Marh, whether that works though is another question.
Dan m Turnbull would have lost 2019. And shorten would have lost in 2022